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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

But the current competition is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a typical year!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still