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The Reform Party has maintained a clear lead in opinion polls for a large part of the year, yet the party confronts several weaknesses. A major problem is that immigration policy appears to be its only potential winning issue, while on most other subjects, its policy platform is insubstantial and its reliability is low. This is most obvious than in economic matters, where the group has already had to admit that the massive tax cut proposals it previously advocated in its manifesto last year are now being abandoned because they are unachievable.

Farage's Economic Strategy

Today, Nigel Farage is trying to resolve this challenge with a speech in which he will, in his words, “outline our economic plan for a Reform-led government.” According to advance reports, Farage will commit the party to broad regulatory cuts.

Farage will additionally say that, if Reform governs, budget cuts would happen prior to tax reductions.

Reform intends to bring public spending managed, with the aim that the country's debt expenses come down. Then, and only then will I cut taxes to encourage expansion. We must get the economic growth.

This represents a huge change from the plans Farage supported last year.

Party Responses

Previously when both major parties largely ignored Farage's talks, but yesterday evening they each released detailed preemptive criticisms that provided additional details than the Reform party preview. Labour said that Farage would revive austerity measures. A Labour spokesperson stated:

According to Nigel Farage he is providing innovative solutions – but regardless of his statements, his plan would take us back to economic austerity.

We’ve seen from the Reform-administered councils that they’ve failed to deliver the cuts they assured and are slashing amenities and raising taxes as a consequence. Reform has admitted that those councils are a shop window for what a Reform administration would do at the national level – it is clear that this is further unfulfilled pledges and no substantive strategy.

The Conservatives issued a seven-page document criticizing Reform's fiscal approach. In a announcement, Mel Stride, the opposition finance spokesperson, said the party's assurances “collapse rapidly” and that its economic policies are “left-leaning.”

Evaluation of Opposition

Between the two criticism strategies, Labour’s “austerity” claim is more convincing, particularly because of what Farage plans to say about budget cuts taking priority over tax reductions. The Tory party is seeking to portray Reform as progressive in part because selected welfare policies avoid the same level of reductions as those proposed by the Tories and because the most recent party document featured a scheme for public utilities to be managed through an approach involving 50% public ownership, with the remaining 50% being owned by UK pension funds. Yet this is not a proposal that Reform has been promoting recently; this element of the Conservative document does not take into account the shadow chancellor's observation about Reform manifesto promises only lasting five minutes.

Following the address, political rivals will get the chance to revise their attack lines against the Reform Party.

Daily Political Schedule

There is a lot of other activity on today. Here is the agenda:

• 10.30am: Chester crown court starts hearing an election petition contesting the outcome of the Runcorn and Helsby byelection, which was won by Reform UK’s Sarah Pochin by just six votes.
• 11am: Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, gives a speech on economic matters.
• 11.30am: The Prime Minister's office hosts a media update.
• 1.30pm: Sir Chris Wormald, the top civil servant, and Sir Olly Robbins, senior civil servant at the Diplomatic Service, appear before the Commons foreign affairs committee about the work of the Foreign Office. The meeting is anticipated to cover discussion of the screening process for Peter Mandelson before he was named as ambassador to the America.
• 2.30pm: The defence secretary, the defense minister, answers queries in the Parliament.
• After 3.30pm: Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, issues a declaration to Members of Parliament about the Huntingdon train attack.